When Tailwinds Vanish

The current exponential growth in VC fundraises, startup projections, and valuations for the past two decades all assume these tailwinds will continue in the 2020s. Many valuations are derived from expanding public multiples of next-twelve-month revenue, which in turn assume continued exponential market expansion. But if you look at these supposed tailwinds today, a gloomier picture appears: they are not exponential functions, but logistic functions with plateauing growth rates.

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